关于气候变化的科学共识
此条目需要更新。 (2019年11月12日) |
科学界中存在一个明确的关于气候变化的科学共识(英语:Scientific consensus on climate change):地球气候正在变暖中,导致的主因是由人类活动所造成。这项共识由各种研究学者的意见和科学组织发表的立场声明予以支持,其中许多明确赞同联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)综合报告中的陈述。
![](http://up.wiki.x.io/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a0/20200324_Global_average_temperature_-_NASA-GISS_HadCrut_NOAA_Japan_BerkeleyE.svg/330px-20200324_Global_average_temperature_-_NASA-GISS_HadCrut_NOAA_Japan_BerkeleyE.svg.png)
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几乎所有积极发表气候学研究报告的学者都表示人类正持续造成气候变化之中。[4][5]审查科学文献是衡量科学共识的另一种方法。 于2019年所进行的科学论文统合分析,结果是有关气候变化原因所得到的共识程度达到100%,[2]而于2021年所做的一项研究的结论,有超过99%的科学论文均同意系人类活动而导致气候变化。[3]一小部分表达无共识的论文通常包含错误,或是其研究过程无法复制以供验证。[6]
如IPCC所指出,导致全球暖化的最大因素是自1750年以来大气中二氧化碳(CO2)浓度增加,特别是来自燃烧化石燃料、生产水泥和森林砍伐等土地利用变化。[7]:10-11IPCC第五次评估报告 (AR5,2013年) 中指出:
研究人员在大气和海洋变暖、全球水循环变化、冰雪减少、全球平均海平面上升以及一些极端天气事件等方面都发现有人类的影响。自第四次评估报告(AR4)发布以来,显示人类影响的证据不断增加。自20世纪中叶以来,人类影响极有可能 (extremely likely,95–100%) 是观测到暖化的主要原因
——AR5第一工作组(WG I)政策制定者摘要[8]:15
人类影响导致全球暖化的证据已得到所有主要工业化国家国家科学院的认可。[9]没任何具有国家或国际地位的科学机构对IPCC的结论提出异议。[10]
共识点
编辑目前科学界的共识点是:
- 自1800年代末期开始,地球气候显著变暖。[a]
- 人类活动(主要是温室气体排放)是主要归因。
- 持续排放温室气体将增加气候变化影响的可能性和严重程度。
- 人们和国家可单独或集体采取行动,以缓解全球暖化的速度,同时也为不可避免的气候变化及其后果做好调适。
目前科学界已对共识进行多项研究。[12]其中引用最多的是2013年发表的一项研究报告,此报告对1990年以来发表,近12,000篇同行评审的气候科学论文摘要进行研究。其中有4,000篇对近期全球暖化原因表达看法,表达看法中有97%透过明示或暗示,同意全球暖化正在发生,且人为活动是肇因。[13][14]这种暖化"极有可能(extremely likely)"[15]是由"人类活动,特别是排放温室气体进入大气"[15]所引起。[16]单独由自然界发生的变化只会产生轻微的降温效应,而非全球暖化。[17][18][19][20]
这种科学观点透过国家或国际科学机构发表的系统性回顾以及气候科学家意见调查来表达。个别科学家、大学和实验室透过同行评审的出版物表达整体科学观点,在这些有知名度的报告和调查中所包含的集体协议和相对确定性提供总结。[21]IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)于2014年发表。[22]论点总结如下:
- "气候系统变暖迹象明确,自1950年代以来,观察到的许多变化是几十年到几千年来前所未见。"[23]
- "大气中二氧化碳、甲烷和一氧化二氮的浓度已增加到至少是过去80万年来未曾有过的水平。"[24]
- 人类明显对气候系统造成影响。[25]人类影响极有可能(extremelly likely,95-100%的几率)[26]是1951年至2010年间全球变暖的主要原因。[25]
- "[全球]暖化程度加剧后,造成严重的、普及的和不可逆转影响的可能性升高。”[27]
- "对未来气候变化作调适的第一步是减少当前气候变化的脆弱性和暴露。"[28]
- "可透过限制气候变化的速度和幅度来降低气候变化影响所产生的整体风险。"[27]
- 如果没有新的缓解政策,预计全球到2100年的平均气温将比第一次工业革命之前的平均气温上升3.7至4.8°C(中位数,范围为2.5至7.8°C之间,包括不确定性)。[29]
- 目前全球温室气体的排放轨迹与将全球暖化限制在相对于工业化前水准1.5或2°C之内的目标并不一致。[30]根据各国于墨西哥坎昆举行的2010年联合国气候变化大会所签订的《坎昆协议》,各国所承诺的减排能产生的成本效益情景只能在2100年达到可能(likely,66-100% 的几率)升温到3°C的结果。[31]
各国和国际的科学院和学会评估当前关于全球暖化的科学观点,评估的结果大致上与IPCC的结论一致。
一些科学机构已向不同政府提出具体政策建议,显示科学有提供资讯以为有效应对气候变化的作用。然而在做政策决策时,需用到价值判断,科学意见中并未包含这种判断。[33][34]
全球没任何具有国家或国际地位的科学机构对这些要点持反对意见。最后一个放弃异议的此类机构是美国石油地质学家协会,[35]该协会于2007年发表声明[36]将其秉持的反对立场改为"不置可否"。[37]有一些其他组织,主要是那些专注于地质学的,也抱持不置可否的立场。
综合报告
编辑所谓综合报告是将一系列独立研究的的科学文献予以汇集评估,以达成针对特定主题的广泛理解,或用以描述相关知识。[38]
IPCC(2014年)
编辑IPCC第五次评估报告遵循第四次评估报告所采的格式,包括三份工作组报告和一份综合报告。[22]第一工作组报告 (WG I) 于2013年9月发布。[22]该份报告中的《政策制定者摘要》指出,气候系统变暖迹象"明确",为过去几十年,甚至长至千年均未曾见过,可观测到的现象有大气和海洋变暖、累积冰雪丧失以及海平面上升。主因是经济和人口成长推动的温室气体排放,导致温室气体浓度达到至少过去80万年来前所未有水平的结果,这些与其他人为驱动因素一起"极有可能"(extremely likely,即超过95%的概率)是导致自20世纪中叶以来观测到的全球暖化的主要原因。[39] 摘要说:[39] {quote|人类持续排放温室气体将导致气候系统所有组成部分进一步变暖和发生长期变化,增加对人类和生态系统产生严重的、普遍的不可逆转影响的可能性。限制气候变化需要持续大幅减少温室气体排放,再加上调适措施,才有限制气候变化风险的可能。|sign=|source=}}
最终都归结于风险管理。我们越努力减少温室气体排放,发生极端气候影响的风险就越低。我们的排放量越高,我们将面临的气候变化就越大,这也表示将会发生成本更昂贵的调适措施、更多的物种灭绝、更多的粮食和供水不安全、更多的收入损失与更多的冲突等等。
奥巴马总统的科学顾问约翰‧霍尔德伦于华盛顿表示,科学界越来越能确定"除非全球共同采取全面、有力的减排行动,否则气候变化所造成的危害将会继续恶化。"
《纽约时报》接着说联合国秘书长潘基文已宣布预定在2014年召开国家元首会议来制定这样的条约。《纽约时报》报导说上一次于2009年在哥本哈根举行的2009年联合国气候变化大会,结果紊乱,成效不彰。[41]
IPCC(2007年)
编辑IPCC于2007年2月先推出即将发布的第四次评估报告(AR4)的摘要。根据这份摘要,人类行为"非常可能(very likely)"是全球暖化的原因(即有90%或更高的概率)。全球暖化导致过去100年全球平均气温上升0.75°C。[42]
AR4指出:
- 气候系统暖化迹象明确,可由全球平均大气和海洋温度升高、累积冰雪大范围融化以及全球平均海平面上升观测到。[43]
- 自20世纪中叶以来的全球暖化大部分非常可能(very likely)是人类活动所造成。[44]
- 气候变化为[人类]社会带来的好处与成本将因地点和规模的不同而有很大差异。[45]有些对温带和极地的影响将为正面,而在其他地方的影响则为负面。[45]整体而言,随着暖化幅度增强或是加快,净效应更有可能是强烈的负面影响。[45] Overall, net effects are more likely to be strongly negative with larger or more rapid warming.[45]
- 已发布的证据显示气候变化的净损害成本有可能(likely)很大,并且会随着时间的演进而升高。[46]
- 由于气候变化、相关干扰(如洪水、干旱、野火、害虫和海洋酸化)和其他全球变化驱动因素(如土地利用变化、污染、自然系统破碎化、资源过度开发),会在本世纪内超越许多生态系统韧性的承受能力。[47]
《纽约时报》报导,"名列国际气候科学家网络的领导者取得结论,全球暖化迹象明确,且人类活动是主要驱动因素,'非常可能(very likely)'是1950年以来全球气温上升的主要原因" 。[48]
一位退休的《纽约时报》记者威廉‧史蒂文斯(William K. Stevens) 写道:"IPCC表示,从车辆排气管和烟囱喷出的二氧化碳等温室气体,有90%到99%的几率是导致过去50年观测到全球变暖的主要原因。用专家的字眼表达 - 这种置信度是'非常可能(very likely)。这是迄今为止的最终定论,看来只有绝少科学特例或能对此门科学提出不同的看法。"[49]
报告预计海平面到本世纪末将上升7至23英寸。如果最近极地冰盖发生突然融化,则可能会额外再升高3.9至7.8英寸。
美国全球变化研究计划
编辑由美国国家海洋暨大气总署 (NOAA) 领导的13个联邦机构在美国全球变化研究计划 (USGCRP) 支持下共同撰写美国第四次国家气候评估报告,报告共有两卷。
气候科学特别报告:美国第四次国家气候评估报告第一卷(2017年10月)提供以下摘要:
本评估根据大量证据,获得的结论是人类活动,特别是温室气体排放,极有可能(extremely likely)是自20世纪中叶以来全球观测到的气候变暖的主要原因。对上个世纪的全球变暖,目前尚无另外大量观测证据支持,可提供令人信服的不同解释。
背景
编辑美国气候变化科学计划为一个存于2002年到2009年的政府部门间研究气候变化协调与整合的计划。该计划于2009年6月提出的报告说[52]:
观测所得,显示气候变暖迹象明确。于过去50年所观测到的全球暖化主要是由于人类排放的温室气体所造成。这些排放主要来自燃烧化石燃料(煤炭、石油和天然气),而森林砍伐、农业和其他活动也有造成相当程度的排放。
这份报告谈及美国受到的气候变化影响,指出:
全球和美国均已观测到与气候相关的变化。包括气温和水温升高、霜冻天数减少、暴雨频率和强度增加、海平面上升以及积雪、冰河、永久冻土和海冰减少。也观测到湖泊和河流的无冰期更长、生长季节延长以及大气中的水蒸气增加。过去30年来的冬季气温上升速度比其他季节都要快,中西部和大平原北部的冬季平均气温上升超过7°F(3.9°C)。其中一些变化速度比之前评估中预测的要快。
北极气候影响评估
编辑政府间北极理事会和非政府组织国际北极科学委员会于2004年发布一篇北极气候影响评估综合报告:[53]
过去气候条件所提供的证据显示大气中二氧化碳含量的上升与全球气温上升有关。人类活动,主要是燃烧化石燃料(煤炭、石油和天然气),其次是土地开发,已增加大气中二氧化碳、甲烷和其他吸热("温室")气体的浓度。 ……国际科学界的共识是于过去50年观测到的大部分暖化现象均可归因于人类活动。[54]
政策
编辑在科学文献中就哪些政策可有效应对气候变化而进行广泛的讨论。[55]一些科学机构向政府提出具体政策(参阅本篇后面部分)。[56]自然科学和社会科学可在有效应对气候变化提供资讯方面发挥作用。[33]但于制定政策时需包括价值判断。[33]例如美国国家科学院评论说:[34]
我们难以直接回答说温室气体浓度是否存在"安全"水平的问题,因为就此是需要对世界各地人类福祉和生态系统可接受的风险进行价值判断,并进一步了解与全球暖化的各种影响相关的风险和成本的定量评估。然而总体上风险会随着气候变化速度和幅度的增长而增加。
本篇文章主要关注的是自然科学家的观点。然而,社会科学家、[55]医学专家、[57]工程师[55]和哲学家[58]同样也对气候变化科学和政策发表过评论。另有几篇讨论到气候变化政策的文章:气候变化缓解、气候变化调适、气候工程、气候变化的政治面、气候变化的伦理面和气候变化经济分析。
国家级或国际级科学组织的声明
编辑以下是一份国家级或国际级的科学机构名单,这些机构已发表正式意见声明,本篇文章根据这些组织对IPCC的观点是否表达赞同、不置可否或是不同意而分类。美国加利福尼亚州州长办公室网站列出全球近200个科学组织,它们所持的立场是气候变化是由人类活动所造成。[59]
赞同
编辑科学院(一般科学)
编辑从2001年起,已有34个国家科学院、3个地区科学院以及国际科学院伙伴关系和国际工程技术科学院理事会发表正式声明,确认是由人类引起全球暖化,并敦促各国减少温室气体排放。 于34个国家科学院中,有33个参与签署联合声明,而波兰科学院于2007年另行发表一份单独声明。
国家科学院联合声明
编辑- 于2001年IPCC第三次评估报告发表之后,有17个国家科学院发表标题为《气候变化的科学(The Science of Climate Change)》的联合声明,明确认同IPCC代表气候变化科学共识的立场。该声明刊登于2001年5月18日出版的《科学》杂志社论中,[60]参与签署的有澳大利亚、比利时、巴西、加拿大、加勒比地区、中国、法国、德国、印度、印尼、爱尔兰、意大利、马来西亚、新西兰、瑞典、土耳其和英国的科学院。[61]
- 2005年,八大工业国组织以及发展中国家三个最大温室气体排放国 - 巴西、中国和印度的国家科学院签署一份关于全球应对气候变化的声明,强调目前对气候变化的科学认识已够清晰,各国有理由采取迅速行动,并明确同意IPCC的观点。此十一位签署者为巴西、加拿大、中国、法国、德国、印度、意大利、日本、俄罗斯、英国和美国的科学院。[62]
- 八国集团同五国(G8+5)国家科学院为筹备第33届八大工业国领袖会议,于2007年发表一份声明,引用2005年科学院联合声明的立场,并承认最近的研究已证实它们先前的结论。宣言沿用IPCC第四次评估报告(2007年)的看法,指出,"毫无疑问的是气候正在发生变化,而且非常可能(very likely)主要是由人类对大气层干扰增加所致。除非采取反制措施,这些变化将会把地球的环境改变。"G8+5签署者为巴西、加拿大、中国、法国、德国、意大利、印度、日本、墨西哥、俄罗斯、南非、英国和美国的国家科学院。[63]
- 非洲科学院网络为参与筹备第33届八大工业国高峰会议,于2007年提交一份名为"《永续发展、能源效率和气候变化声明(statement on sustainability, energy efficiency, and climate change)》"的联合声明:
全球科学界根据现有证据已达成共识,即人类活动是气候变化的主要根源,而燃烧化石燃料在很大程度上会推动此一变化。IPCC为公众能理解能源、气候和永续发展之间的联系贡献良多,值得祝贺。13个签署者是喀麦隆、加纳、肯亚、马达加斯加、尼日利亚、塞内加尔、南非、苏丹、坦桑尼亚、乌干达、赞比亚、津巴布韦的科学院,以及非洲科学院。[64]
- G8+5国家科学院为筹备第34届八大工业国高峰会议于2008年发表声明,重申2005年科学院联合声明的立场,并重申"气候变化正在发生,人为变暖正在影响许多自然现象和生物系统"。该声明敦促所有国家"采取适当的经济和政策措施,加速向低碳经济转型,并倡导和影响个人和国家进行行为改变"。 13个参与签署机构即为发表2007年联合声明的国家科学院。[65]
- G8+5国家的国家科学院于2009年12月在哥本哈根举行《联合国气候变化纲要公约(UNFCCC)》谈判之前发表联合声明,宣布:"气候变化与永续能源供应是人类未来面临的重大挑战。世界领导人必须就应对人为气候变化的负面影响所需的减排达成一致目标"。该声明引用IPCC第四次评估报告,并断言"气候变化的速度比之前估计的还快,而2000年以来全球二氧化碳排放量甚至比最高预测更高,北极海冰融化的速度比预测快得多 ,海平面上升变得更为迅速"。 13位签署者即为发布2007年和2008年联合声明的国家科学院。[56]
波兰科学院
编辑并未参与签署国家科学院联合声明的波兰科学院(Polska Akademia Nauk)于2007年12月发表一份声明,支持IPCC的观点,并指出:[66]
波兰科学界和国家政府有责任以深思熟虑、有组织性和积极的方式参与实现这些理念。
全球暖化、气候变化议题及其对人类生活和整个社会运作的各种负面影响是现代人类最严峻的挑战之一。
波兰科学院呼吁国际科学界和各国政府积极支持波兰参与这项重要工作。
其他国家科学院和学会声明
编辑科学证据明确:由人类活动引起的全球气候变化正在发生中,且对社会构成越来越大的威胁。 ……过去五年来,变化的步伐和危害的证据显著增加。现在该是着手控制温室气体排放的时候了。
- 澳大利亚科学技术协会联合会(FASTS)于2008年发表FASTS关于气候变化的声明(FASTS Statement on Climate Change)[68],指出:
全球气候变化不但真实且可衡量。 ……面对这些影响,为减少全球净经济、环境和社会损失,政策目标必须继续集中于经由减少排放,让温室气体浓度恢复到接近工业化前的水平。暖化的空间和时间指纹最终可追溯到大气中温室气体浓度的增加,这是燃烧化石燃料、大规模森林砍伐和其他人类活动直接导致的结果。
- 美国国家科学院透过其气候变化科学委员会于2001年出版一份名为《气候变化科学:一些关键问题的分析(Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions)》的报告。[69]报告明确认可IPCC对近期气候变化归因的观点,认为其代表科学界的看法:[69]
过去几十年观测到的变化可能(likely)主要是由于人类活动所造成,但我们不能排除这些变化中的某些重要部分也是自然变异的结果。人类造成的暖化和相关的海平面上升预计将在21世纪中持续。 …… IPCC的结论是过去50年观测到的大部分暖化可能(likely)是由于温室气体浓度的增加而造成,此观点准确反映科学界目前对这个问题的看法。
由于温室气体排放量增加,全球正在变暖。测量结果显示大气中温室气体的浓度远高于数千年以来的水平。预计全球气候将进一步变化,随着时间的演进,其影响代价预计将会变得更为高昂。人类需要大幅减少温室气体排放以降低未来气候变化的影响。
- 英国皇家学会从未改变其参与各国国家科学院联合发表,有关人类活动导致全球暖化声明的立场。根据《每日电讯报》报导,"在研究员抱怨对人类造成全球暖化的存疑并未传达给公众后,英国最负盛名的科学家小组被迫采取行动"。[71]学会于2010年5月宣布"其目前正在起草一份新的面向公众的气候变化文件,以易于取得的形式提供最新的科学状况报告,同时也处理关键组成部分中有关确定性水平的事项。"[72]学会表示距离上次发布此类文件已经过三年,新文件经过广泛的辩论和审查过程,[73][74]于2010年9月发布,总结当前的科学证据并强调这些领域的科学已十分成熟,但仍存有一些争论,且仍存在很大的不确定性。学会表示"这并不等于说气候科学本身是错误的 - 从来没有研究员向学会表达过这样的观点"。[72]新文件前言中包含这样的声明:
有强而有力的证据显示过去半个世纪地球暖化主要是由人类活动所造成,例如燃烧化石燃料和土地利用变化(包括农业和森林砍伐)。
国际科学院
编辑全球科学界根据现有证据,现已达成共识,即人类活动是气候变化的主要根源,而燃烧化石燃料在很大程度上会推动此一变化。
人类活动可能(likely)是气候暖化的原因。过去50年的大部分气候暖化可能(likely)是由大气中温室气体浓度增加所引起。记录在案的长期气候变化包括北极气温和冰层的变化、降水量、海洋盐度、风型和极端天气(包括干旱、强降水、热浪和热带气旋强度)的广泛变化。上述发展将会对人类的未来产生巨大影响。
现在已有令人信服的证据显示自第一次工业革命以来,导致温室气体浓度不断增加的人类活动已成为气候变化的主要因素…因此,透过减少温室气体来持续缓解气候变化的工作就非常重要。
- 国际科学院伙伴关系是世界科学和工程学院的代表,[78][79]于2007年发布标题为《照亮道路:迈向可持续能源的未来(Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future)》的报告。
目前的能源和能源使用模式已被证明对人类的长期福祉不利。基本自然系统的完整性已受到温室气体排放所造成的气候变化威胁。[80]世人应共同努力提高能源效率,降低世界经济的排放强度。[81]
- 国际工程技术科学院理事会(CAETS)于2007年发表关于环境与永续成长的声明:[82]
根据IPCC报告,自20世纪中叶以来观测到全球暖化的大部分非常可能(very likely)是由于人为排放的温室气体所造成,如果目前的人为排放持续,暖化将会有增无减,或更糟的是会不受控制的扩张。因此CAETS赞同最近提出的尽快减少温室气体排放呼吁,将其控制在可接受的水平。
物理化学科学
编辑地球科学
编辑美国地球物理联盟
编辑美国地球物理联盟 (AGU) 于1998年通过一份关于气候变化和温室气体的声明。[88]该协会于2003年通过一项新声明,于2007年进行修订,[89]并于2013年进行再次修订和扩展,[89]确认温室气体水平已上升,且会继续导致全球地表温度升高:
人类活动正在改变地球的气候之中。全球自第一次工业革命以来,大气中二氧化碳和其他温室气体的浓度急剧增加。此一增长由燃烧化石燃料占主导地位。于过去140年中观测到的全球平均地表暖化约为0.8°C (1.5°F) ,大部分是由人为的温室气体增加所造成。由于自然过程无法从大气中快速去除这类气体(尤其是二氧化碳),我们过去、现在和未来的排放量将会影响气候系统长达数千年。虽然对于哪里会受到何种特定影响,目前仍存有重要的科学不确定性,但没任何不确定性可让气候变化的影响变得可忽视。此外,可能有令人惊讶的结果,例如北极夏季海冰出乎意料之外迅速消失,而带来比预期更为剧烈的变化。
美国农学会、美国作物科学学会和美国土壤科学学会
编辑美国农学会 (ASA)、美国作物科学学会 (Crop Science Society of America,CSSA) 和美国土壤科学学会 (Soil Science Society of America,SSSA) 于2011年5月就农业相关的气候变化发表联合立场声明:[90]
全面的科学证据毫无疑问显示全球气候变化正在发生之中,威胁著社会以及自然和管理生态系统的稳定。环境温度的升高和相关过程的变化与大气中人为温室气体浓度的上升有直接关系。
除非将温室气体排放大幅遏制,否则浓度将会持续上升,导致气温、降水和其他气候变量的变化,世界各地的农业无疑会受到影响。
气候变化有增加天气变率的潜力,并逐渐将全球气温升高。这两种影响都有潜力对世界粮食生产的适应性和韧性产生负面影响。目前的研究显示气候变化已经降低本已脆弱的耕作系统生产力。
欧洲地质学家联盟
编辑欧洲地质学家联盟[91](EFG)于2008年发发布一篇名为《碳捕集与地质封存(Carbon Capture and geological Storage,CCS)》立场文件:[92]
EFG认可IPCC和其他组织的研究结果,并同意有气候变化这项重要发现,气候变化主要是由人为排放二氧化碳所引起,对人类文明构成重大威胁。
由于证据明显,而需要非常努力以快速、有效减少二氧化碳排放。 EFG大力倡导再生和永续能源生产,包括地热能,以及提高使用能源的效率。
CCS(碳捕集和地质封存)也应被视为一种过渡性技术,促进转为无碳经济的境界。
欧洲地球科学联盟
编辑欧洲地球科学联盟(EGU)所属的大气与气候科学部于2005年发表立场声明,支持各科学院关于气候变化的科学共识声明。这份立场声明称IPCC为"全球科学社群的主要代表",并断言IPCC:[93]
得到世界各地主要科学院以及同行评审科学文献记录的绝大多数科学研究人员和调查人员的支持,是最先进气候科学的代表。
此外EGU于2008年发布关于海洋酸化的立场声明,其中指出:"海洋酸化已经发生,并会持续加剧,与大气中二氧化碳的增加密切相关。鉴于酸化对海洋生态系统的潜在威胁及其对人类社会和经济的影响,特别是当它与人为全球暖化同时发生,因此有立即采取行动的需要。"立场声明接着倡导采取策略"限制未来向大气排放二氧化碳和/或加强从大气中移除过量二氧化碳"。[94]EGU又于2018年发表一份声明,同意IPCC全球升温1.5ºC特别报告(SR15)中的结论,EGU主席乔纳森·班伯指出:"EGU同意且支持SR15的调查结果,即遏制人为气候变化所产生最危险后果的行动极为重要,且刻不容缓,人类的机会之窗会稍纵即逝。”[95]
美国地质学会
编辑美国地质学会(GSA)于2006年通过关于全球气候变化的立场声明,并在2010年4月20日将此立场作修正,对二氧化碳减排的必要性提出更明确的叙述:[96]
经历过数十年的科学研究显示,自然和人为原因都会导致气候变化。GSA同意美国国家科学院 (2005年)、国家研究委员会 (2006年) 和IPCC(2007年) 的评估,即全球气候已经变暖,人类活动(主要是温室气体排放)是1900年代中期以来气候暖化的主要原因。如果目前的趋势维持下去,预计全球气温会继续上升到二十一世纪末,会对人类和其他物种产生巨大影响。需要同时进行气候变化调适行动,加上减少人为二氧化碳的排放以应对此种挑战。
伦敦地质学会
编辑伦敦地质学会于2010年11月发表立场声明《气候变化:来自地质纪录的证据(Climate change: evidence from the geological record)》:[97]
全球人口于上个世纪迅速增长,更加密集使用资源,导致燃烧化石燃料(石油、天然气和煤炭)、农业活动、水泥生产和森林砍伐,所产生的二氧化碳和甲烷等排放量大幅增加。 地质记录的证据与物理学一致,显示在大气中加入大量二氧化碳会导致世界变暖,并可能导致:海平面上升和低洼海岸遭到洪患、降雨模式发生巨大变化、海洋酸度增加,以及海水中含氧量降低。现在人们普遍担心气候将进一步变暖,这不仅是因为系统中已增加碳所产生的影响,而且还因为人口持续增长而进一步增加碳的排放。地球上的生物过去曾经历过大规模的气候变化,其中许多都与物种灭绝和大型重新分布有关联。当全球人口规模较小且采游牧的生活方式时,海平面上升几米对智人的影响微乎其微。而当前全球人口不断增长,其中大部分于沿海城市居住,海平面上升将对这类社会产生巨大影响,特别是当气候突然发生变化时。同样的,随着持续变暖,一些地区的降水量可能会减少,导致干旱发生。随着海平面上升及干旱加剧,可能会形成压力,迫使人类做大规模迁徙。
国际大地测量学与地球物理学联合会
编辑国际大地测量学与地球物理学联合会(IUGG)于2007年7月通过名为《应对气候变化的迫切性(The Urgency of Addressing Climate Change)》的决议。IUGG于其中同意"IPCC以及区域和国家机构进行的全面且广泛被接受和认可的科学评估,这些评估根据科学证据,坚实确定人类活动是最近气候变化的主要影响因素"。IUGG进一步指出,"持续仰赖燃烧化石燃料作为主要能源,会导致大气中温室气体浓度大幅升高,进而造成地表温度、海平面、海洋碳酸含量大幅增长,继而强化对环境和社会的影响。[98]
美国全国地球科学教师协会
编辑美国地球科学教师协会[99](NAGT) 于2009年7月通过一份关于气候变化的立场声明,称"地球气候正发生变化中",并且"目前的暖化趋势主要是人类活动造成的结果":[100]
NAGT大力支持并会致力于气候变化、当前全球暖化的原因和影响,以及急需减少温室气体排放的政策和行动相关的教育活动。
气象学与海洋学
编辑美国气象学会
编辑美国气象学会 (AMS) 理事会于2012年通过的声明中的结论为:[101]
有明确的证据显示地球的低层大气、海洋和陆地表面正在变暖、海平面正在上升以及积雪、山地冰河和北极海冰正在缩减。导致从1950年代以来的气候暖化主要原因是人类活动。这项科学发现是根据大量且有说服力的研究。观测到的暖化现象在未来许多年均为不可逆转,而随着温室气体在大气中持续积累,甚至会出现更大幅度的气温升高。避免未来的暖化需要大幅度且迅速地减少温室气体排放。持续暖化将会增加21世纪及以后人类社会、经济、生态系统和野生动物面临的风险和压力,因此人类社会必须对气候变化采取应对措施。为能对调适和缓解决策提供信息,我们必须透过不断改进的监测和研究来提高对全球气候系统的了解,以及预测未来气候的能力。对于较小的(季节性和区域性)尺度、天气和气候极端事件以及重要的水文气候变数(例如降水和可用水量)尤需要如此。于不久的将来在技术、经济和政策所做的选项将决定未来气候变化影响程度。基于科学的决策很少是在绝对确定的情况下所做。国家和国际政策讨论中应将调适和减缓气候变化的最佳方法列入考虑。缓解措施可减少未来气候变化的程度以及潜在的巨大风险。同时某些持续的气候变化将不可避免,因此需制定调适政策。在考虑到人类与能维持人类生命的地球之间的关系,极端谨慎是必要准则。
于2016年所做的一项调查发现三分之二的AMS成员认为全部或大部分气候变化是由人类活动所引起。[102]
澳大利亚气象与海洋学会
编辑澳大利亚气象与海洋学会于2021年发布一份关于气候变化的声明(Statement on Climate Change),其结论:[103]
全球气候变化和暖化是真实且可观测到的……那些由人类活动导致大气中温室气体浓度的增加,非常可能(very likely)是造成自1950年以来观测到暖化的主要原因。这种暖化现象称为温室效应。自第一次工业革命起,大气中二氧化碳的浓度已增加30%以上,目前的浓度比至少过去65万年来的任何时期都要高。这种增长是燃烧化石燃料、大规模砍伐森林和其他人类活动直接导致。
加拿大气候与大气科学基金会
编辑加拿大气候与大气科学基金会(CFCAS)于2005年11月致函当时的加拿大总理保罗·马丁,指出:[104]
我们同意IPCC于2001年发布的气候变化评估…我们同意这份评估中的结论,即"有新的、更有力的证据显示过去50年观测到的大部分暖化现像是由于人类活动所致"。 ……越来越明确的证据显示加拿大和世界各地的气候正在变化。气候变化将对加拿大的自然生态系统和社会经济活动产生越来越大的影响。自这份评估报告发布以来,由于气候科学的进展,提供更多证据,支持采取行动和制定调适变化策略的必要性。
加拿大气象与海洋学会
编辑加拿大气象和海洋学会于2009年11月致加拿大国会的一封信中指出:[105]
严格的国际研究,同时包括加拿大政府进行和支持的工作显示人类活动产生的温室气体导致大气和海洋变暖,并对我们社会的健康和安全产生严重风险,同时也对所有国人的生命产生影响。
英国皇家气象学会
编辑IPCC第四次评估报告发布之后,英国皇家气象学会于2007年2月对其发表认可。除称IPCC为"世界上最好的气候科学家组合"之外,还表示气候变化是"第一次工业革命以来温室气体排放的结果,人类现已启动未来50年的全球暖化 - 我们现在的作为将会决定将来气候变化将恶化到何种程度。"[106]
世界气象组织
编辑世界气象组织 (WMO) 于2006年11月15日向UNFCCC第十二届缔约方会议发表的声明中,确认有必要"防止对气候系统产生危险的人为干扰"。WMO认同"科学评估越来越多证实人类活动确实正在改变大气的成分,特别是于生产和运输时利用燃烧化石燃料来达成"。 WMO认同"在过去42万年里大气中的二氧化碳浓度从未高过当前的",且IPCC"提供的评估是最具权威、最新的科学建议"。[107]
美国第四纪协会
编辑现在几乎没具公信力的科学家会怀疑是人类导致第一次工业革命以来全球气温上升的观点。第一份由美国政府主导的气候变化科学计划综合和评估报告支持透过越来越多的证据显示大气变暖,特别是在过去50年中发生的,为直接受到人类活动影响的结果。
国际第四纪研究联盟
编辑国际第四纪研究联盟(INQUA)发表的气候变化声明重申IPCC的结论,并敦促各国根据UNFCCC原则迅速采取行动:[109]
人类活动现在导致大气中温室气体的浓度(包括二氧化碳、甲烷、对流层臭氧和一氧化二氮)远高于工业化前的水平……温室气体的增加导致气温上升……气候变化的科学面现在已足够清楚,各国有理由采取迅速行动……最大限度地减少进入大气的二氧化碳量是项巨大挑战,但必须作为全球优先事项。
生物学与生命科学
编辑将气候变化对野生动物造成的危害作概述的生命科学组织有:
- 美国野生动物兽医学会(American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians)[110]
- 美国生物科学研究所(AIBS)。 美国18个科学学会和组织的领导人于2009年10月向美国参议院发出公开信,重申气候变化正在发生,且主要是由人类活动造成的科学共识。AIBS采纳这封信作为其官方立场声明。[111][112]这封信还为预计对美国造成的影响提出警告,例如海平面上升和极端天气事件增加、水资源短缺、热浪、野火和生物系统的干扰。并主张大幅减少温室气体排放。[113]
- 美国微生物学会[114]
- 澳大利亚珊瑚礁协会(Australian Coral Reef Society)[115]
- 英国生物研究所[116]
- 美国林业人员协会发表两份有关气候变化的立场声明,其中引用IPCC[117]和UNFCCC相关文字。[118]
- 野生动物协会[119]
人体健康
编辑许多卫生组织就气候变化对人类健康的影响发出警告:
- 美国儿科学会[120]
- 美国预防医学院[121]
- 美国医学会[122]
- 美国公共卫生协会[123]
- 澳大利亚医学会分别于2004年[124]和2008年[125]发布警告
- 世界公共卫生协会联合会(World Federation of Public Health Associations)[126]
- 世界卫生组织(WHO)[127]
现在人们普遍同意由于人类活动排放温室气体,地球正在变暖。同样明显的是当前能源使用、经济发展和人口成长的趋势将导致持续且更为严重的气候变化。
气候变化会无可避免地影响维持健康的基本要求:干净的空气和水、充足的食物和适当的住所。每年约有80万人由于城市空气污染而丧生,180万人由于缺乏清洁水供应、环境卫生和不良卫生习惯导致的腹泻而丧生,350万人因营养不良而死亡,约有6万人由于自然灾害而丧生。气候变暖和多变性会导致某些空气污染物的浓度升高,不洁净的水和受污染的食物会增加疾病传播,损害一些最不发达国家的农业生产,并增加极端天气的危害。
原子科学家公报与"末日之钟"
编辑阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦和其他制造出用于广岛与长崎原子弹爆炸原子弹的科学家于1945年创立《原子科学家公报》,并创造"末日之钟"。此末日之钟的目标是传达针对人类和地球的威胁,并提高公众意识以寻求解决方案。末日之钟一开始是关注核战争的危险,但到21世纪后则开始针对气候变化和互联网上的虚假资讯等其他问题。
公报组织于2020年1月23日将末日之钟移至午夜前100秒,剩余的时间比以往任何时候都更接近午夜。组织解释这样做的原因有三个:
- 核战争的危险日益增加、
- 气候变化带来的危险日益增加,以及
- 网络上有关前述第1点和第2点,以及其他"颠覆性技术"的虚假资讯带来的危险越来越大。
该组织赞扬年轻人的气候运动(参见气候大罢课),并呼吁公民和政府采取行动,对气候变化采取更大规模的行动。[128]
其他一些国家级科学协会也赞同IPCC的意见:
- 美国天文学会[129]
- 美国统计协会[130]
- {{le|加拿大专业工程师委员会|Canadian Council of Professional Engineers}[131]
- 澳大利亚工程师学会[132]
- 国际五大湖研究协会(International Association for Great Lakes Research)[133]
- 新西兰专业工程师协会[134]
- 世界工程组织联合会 (WFEO)
不置可否
编辑
美国石油地质学家协会
编辑美国石油地质学家协会 (AAPG) (截至2007年6月)关于气候变化的立场声明指出:[135]
AAPG成员根据人为二氧化碳对近期和潜在的全球气温升高的影响程度存在分歧看法。根据电脑模型NAS、AGU、AAAS和AMS的模拟结果,某些气候模型预测暖化趋势将持续下去。 AAPG尊重这些科学观点,但要补充一点,目前的气候变暖预测可能落在过去气候和观测到的温度数据中充分的自然变化范围之内。这些数据不一定可用于支持某些模型中的最大情景预测。
根据美国第四纪协会理事会发表的声明,在前述AAPG声明通过之前,AAPG是唯一拒绝接受人类对近期气候有重大影响的主要科学组织。[35]AAPG总裁Lee Billingsly在2007年3月写道:[136]
AAPG成员们威胁说,如果协会不改变其在全球气候变化问题上的立场,他们将不再于到期时更新会员身份…而且我听说由于我们预定现在采取的全球气候变化立场的前几年已有成员退出… ……我们目前的政策声明并未得到我们相当数目的会员和潜在会员的支持。
AAPG主席约翰·洛伦茨 (John Lorenz) 于2010年1月宣布"取消"AAPG全球气候变化委员会。AAPG执行委员会决议:[137]
气候变化于本协会涵盖的科学领域而言,充其量居于次要地位……AAPG在此领域并不擅长……作为一个团体,我们对全球大气地球物理学并无特殊了解。
美国专业地质学家协会(AIPG)
编辑AIPG关于环境的官方立场声明指出"燃烧化石燃料会产生包括二氧化碳和甲烷等温室气体。有些人认为能源系统中大量使用化石燃料会产生温室气体排放,是导致全球气候变化与环境问题的根源"。[138]
AIPG执行董事于2010年3月就会员内部对气候变化的意见两极分化发表声明,宣布AIPG执行委员会决定停止在AIPG经营的新闻期刊《专业地质学家(The Professional Geologist)》上发表有关气候变化的文章和观点。[139]
反对科学共识
编辑自2007年美国石油地质学家协会发布修订声明以来,[36]已不再有任何国家级或国际级科学机构拒绝接受人类对气候变化影响的发现。[35][37]
科学家与科学文献调查
编辑目前已进行过各种调查来评估关于全球暖化的科学观点,获得的结论是几乎所有气候科学家都支持人为活动导致气候变化的观点。[1]
地质学家和科学史学者内奥米·奥雷斯克斯于2004年总结其有关气候变化的科学文献研究。[140]她针对1993年至2003年间所参考科学期刊的928篇论文的摘要,所得结论是对于人为行动导致气候变化的现实,科学界已达成共识。
奥雷斯克斯将摘要分成六类:对共识立场明确认可、评估影响、提出缓解建议、检测与评估方法、古气候学分析和拒绝接受共识立场。 有75%的摘要属于前三类(采明确或隐喻方式接受共识观点)、25%涉及方法或古气候,因而对当前的人为气候变化不持立场,而其中没有一篇采拒绝接受共识的立场,作者认为这情况"非常特殊"。奥雷斯克斯的报告称,"这些进行评估影响、开发研究方法或研究古气候变化的研究人员可能认为当前的气候变化是自然发生,但其研究报告中都没就此做争论。"
美国市场研究与分析公司哈里斯民意调查公司受统计评估服务公司所托于2007年针对489名气候学家或地质学家进行随机抽样调查。 97%的受访者一致认为过去100年来全球气温确有上升、84%的人表示他们个人相信人类引起的暖化正在发生、74%的人同意"经由目前可用的科学证据"证实其已发生、41%的人认为于50-100年内可能(likely)会出现灾难性影响、44%的人认为影响温和、约13%的人认为危险相对较小,而有5%表示他们认为人类活动不会导致气候变暖。[141][142][143][144]
Dennis Bray与Hans von Storch两位教授于2008年8月对来自34个国家,共2,058名气候科学家进行一项调查。[145]为每为受访者提供一个具有特别辨识的网络链接,以避免重复回答,一共收到373份回复,整体回复率为18.2%。迄2010年2月,基于这项调查的气候变化共识论文尚未发布,但基于这项调查的结果已有一篇涵盖另一个主题的论文发表。[146]
这次的调查包含有76个问题,分为几个部分。其中包括受访者的人口统计数据、他们对气候科学状况的评估、认为气候科学完善到何种程度、气候变化的影响、调适与缓解措施、他们对IPCC的看法以及气候科学向公众传播的有效程度。大多数答案的评分范围为1到7,各别代表"完全不"到"非常"。
对于"您对现在发生气候变化(无论是自然的还是人为的)相信的程度?",67.1%的人表示非常同意,26.7%的人表示在很大程度上同意,6.2%的人表示在某种程度上同意(2-4),没有人表示他们完全不同意。对于"您对最近或不久的将来的大部分气候变化是,或将是人为造成的结果相信的程度?"34.6%表示非常同意,48.9%表示在很大程度上同意,15.1%表示稍微同意,1.35%表示完全不同意。
伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校的彼得·杜兰教授与Maggie Kendall Zimmerman进行的一项调查,由10,257名接受调查的地球科学家中收到3,146名的回应。回答部分按回复者全体与依据回复者专业别进行分析。 于79名气候学家中,有76名"将气候科学列为自己的专业领域,且最近发表的,有超过50%是有关气候变化主题的同行评审论文",他们认为全球平均气温与1800年代之前相比,已经上升。77人中有75人认为人类活动是改变全球平均气温的重要因素。在所有回复者中,90%的人认为与1800年之前的水平相比,气温有所上升,82%的人认为人类对全球气温有显著影响。经济地质学专业和气象学专业者是其中两大怀疑论者,他们之中分别有47%和64%的人相信是由人类活动导致全球变暖。两位研究者的总结为:[147]
对于那些了解长期气候过程细微之处和科学基础的人而言,关于全球暖化的真实性和人类活动所发挥的作用,基本上并不存有争论。
一篇发表于2010年美国国家科学院院刊 (PNAS) 的论文,审查1,372名气候研究人员发表的报告和引用数据,得到两个结论:[148]
(i) 最积极发表论文的气候研究人员中有97–98%支持IPCC概述的ACC(人为气候变化,Anthropogenic Climate Change)原则,以及 (ii) 不相信ACC的研究者中,其具有的气候专业知识和科学地位相对上远低于相信ACC的研究者。
一篇于2013年在《环境研究快报》(同行评审的季刊)发表的论文,审查11,944篇与"全球暖化"或"全球气候变化"相符的科学论文摘要,发现有4,014篇讨论最近全球暖化的原因,其中"97.1%具有人类正在导致全球暖化的共识"。[149]这篇论文在2016年受到理查德·托尔教授的批评,[150]但同卷中的一篇姊妹篇论文对此进行强力辩护。[151]
一项由研究人员PHIL PLAIT于2012年针对对1991年至2012年期间已发表的全球暖化与气候变化研究的分析发现,同行评审期刊中的13,950篇文章中,只有24篇拒绝接受人为全球暖化的观点。[152]PHIL PLAIT后续有针对2012年11月至2013年12月期间,由9,136位研究人员发表的2,258篇同行评审的气候文章进行分析,显示9,136位作者中只有一位拒绝接受人为全球变暖的观点。[153]PHIL PLAIT于2015年发表关于这个主题的论文涵盖2013年和2014年期间69,406位研究人员所发表的24,210篇文章,发现只有4位作者的5篇文章拒绝接受人为全球暖化的说法。有超过99.99%的气候科学家在其同行评审的研究中并未拒绝接受人为全球变暖的观点。[154]
詹姆斯·劳伦斯·鲍威尔在2017年发表的报告中称,对1991年至2015年期间发表的同行评审文献(包括前述中的几项)进行的五次调查,于总计54,195篇文章中,平均共识率为99.94%。[155]他于2019年11月对2019年前7个月发表的11,600多篇同行评审文章进行调查,显示共识达到100%。[2]
于2021年进行的一项调查发现从2012年以来发表的88,125篇与气候相关的同行评审研究中,随机选出的3,000篇论文,只有4篇对人为气候变化持怀疑态度。[156]
于2021年对2,780名地球科学家,根据其专业进行的调查显示,91%至100%的人认为人类活动正在导致气候变化。在气候科学家中,98.7%的人同意,如果仅计算具有高度专业水平的气候科学家(已发表20篇论文以上),这一数字就会增长到100%。[4]
科学共识的存在问题
编辑大众讨论中经常出现的一个问题是,对于气候变化是否存在科学共识。[21]一些科学组织在其声明中明确使用"共识"的字眼:
- 美国科学促进会(2006年):"本声明中的结论反映出,例如IPCC和各国国家科学院联合声明等所代表的科学"共识"。"[67]
- 美国国家科学院:"根据大多数气候科学家的判断,近几十年来地球变暖主要是由于人类活动增加大气中温室气体的含量所造成。......关于气候变化,[美国国家科学院]评估科学上的"共识"发现…"[161]
- 各国国家科学院联合声明(2005年):"我们承认IPCC提出的国际科学"共识"。"[162]
- 各国国家科学院联合声明(2001年):"IPCC的工作代表国际科学界在气候变化科学方面的"共识"。我们认为IPCC是世界上关于气候变化影响资讯及原因最可靠的来源。我们赞同其达成此一"共识"的方法。"[61]
- 美国气象学会(2003年):"科学的本质是科学家之间很少能达成意见完全一致。个别的科学陈述和论文(其中一些的有效性尚未得到充分评估)可在政策辩论中受到利用,而给人留下科学界存在严重分歧的印象,而实际上是存在强烈的科学"共识"……IPCC评估报告由代表广泛领域,具有与问题相关的专业知识和观点的大型国际专家群每隔大约五年编写一次。报告力求反映对整个同行审查研究结果的"共识"评估…它们提供对已知和未知内容、共识程度以及一些表明对各种陈述和结论的置信度。"[163]
- 非洲科学院网络:"根据现有证据,全球科学界现已达成"共识",即人类活动是气候变化的主要根源,而燃烧化石燃料在很大程度上会推动此一变化。”[64]
- 国际第四纪研究联盟(2008年):"本联盟认可IPCC的国际科学"共识"。"[109]
- 澳大利亚珊瑚礁协会,[164](2006年):"专家几乎完全一致认为由于温室气体的积累,地球气候正在改变…广泛的科学"共识"认为珊瑚礁受到以下因素的严重影响:人类活动,以及全球变暖等重大影响会让珊瑚礁变得更加脆弱…"[165]
参见
编辑注释
编辑- ^ Changes in global temperature are usually expressed in terms of temperature anomalies. "In climate change studies, temperature anomalies are more important than absolute temperature. A temperature anomaly is the difference from an average, or baseline, temperature. The baseline temperature is typically computed by averaging 30 or more years of temperature data."[11]
参考文献
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- ^ "Total radiative forcing is positive and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750." and "From 1750 to 2011, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have released 375 [345 to 405] GtC to the atmosphere, while deforestation and other land-use change are estimated to have released 180 [100 to 260] GtC." In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆) [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
- ^ IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆). In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆) [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. "Extremely likely" is defined as a 95–100% likelihood on p 2.
- ^ Joint Science Academies' Statement (PDF). 2005 [2014-04-20]. (原始内容 (PDF)存档于2013-09-09).
It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001). This warming has already led to changes in the Earth's climate.
- ^ Julie Brigham-Grette. Petroleum Geologists' Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate. Eos. September 2006, 87 (36): 364. Bibcode:2006EOSTr..87..364B. doi:10.1029/2006EO360008 .
The AAPG stands alone among scientific societies in its denial of human-induced effects on global warming.
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- ^ Cook, John; Oreskes, Naomi; Doran, Peter T.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Verheggen, Bart; Maibach, Ed W.; Carlton, J. Stuart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Skuce, Andrew G.; Green, Sarah A.; Nuccitelli, Dana; Jacobs, Peter; Richardson, Mark; Winkler, Bärbel; Painting, Rob; Rice, Ken. Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming. Environmental Research Letters. 2016, 11 (4): 048002. Bibcode:2016ERL....11d8002C. ISSN 1748-9326. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 (英语).
- ^ Cook, John; Nuccitelli, Dana; Green, Sarah A.; Richardson, Mark; Winkler, Bärbel; Painting, Rob; Way, Robert; Jacobs, Peter; Skuce, Andrew. Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature. Environ. Res. Lett. (IOP Publishing Ltd.). 2013-05-15, 8 (2): 024024. Bibcode:2013ERL.....8b4024C. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024 .
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- ^ 15.0 15.1 Wuebbles, D.J.; Fahey, D.W.; Hibbard, K.A.; Deangelo, B.; Doherty, S.; Hayhoe, K.; Horton, R.; Kossin, J.P.; Taylor, P.C.; Waple, A.M.; Yohe, C.P. Climate Science Special Report / Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I /Executive Summary / Highlights of the Findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report. globalchange.gov (U.S. Global Change Research Program). 2018-11-23: 1–470. doi:10.7930/J0DJ5CTG . (原始内容存档于2019-06-14).
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Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position.
- ^ "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level." IPCC, Synthesis Report 互联网档案馆的存档,存档日期2018-11-02., Section 1.1: Observations of climate change 互联网档案馆的存档,存档日期2018-08-04., in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
- ^ IPCC, Summary for Policymakers (PDF), Detection and Attribution of Climate Change, [2023-11-13], (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-01-11),
"It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century" (page 17) and "In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: ... extremely likely: 95–100%" (page 2).
, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013. - ^ IPCC, Synthesis Report 互联网档案馆的存档,存档日期2018-11-02., Section 2.4: Attribution of climate change 互联网档案馆的存档,存档日期2018-11-03., in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007."It is likely that increases in GHG concentrations alone would have caused more warming than observed because volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols have offset some warming that would otherwise have taken place."
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(p1) there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. * * * (p. 21–22) Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.
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- ^ IPCC ( 2013-11-11): B.5 Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles, in: Summary for Policymakers (finalized version) 互联网档案馆的存档,存档日期2017-03-09., in: IPCC AR5 WG1 2013,第9页
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The AAPG stands alone among scientific societies in its denial of human-induced effects on global warming.
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the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main driver, 'very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel's parlance, this level of certainty is labeled "very likely." Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression.
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- ^ Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences the Arts; Royal Society of Canada; German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina; Indian National Science Academy; Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy); Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand; Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences; Royal Society (UK). Editorial: The Science of Climate Change. Science. 18 May 2001, 292 (5520): 1261. PMID 11360966. S2CID 129309907. doi:10.1126/science.292.5520.1261.
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- ^ 67.0 67.1 AAAS Board Statement on Climate Change (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆) www.aaas.org December 2006
- ^ FASTS Statement on Climate Change (PDF), 2008 [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2013-05-11) "Global climate change is real and measurable. Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years. Key vulnerabilities arising from climate change include water resources, food supply, health, coastal settlements, biodiversity and some key ecosystems such as coral reefs and alpine regions. As the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases increases, impacts become more severe and widespread. To reduce the global net economic, environmental and social losses in the face of these impacts, the policy objective must remain squarely focused on returning greenhouse gas concentrations to near pre-industrial levels through the reduction of emissions. The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity."
- ^ 69.0 69.1 Committee on the Science of Climate Change, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council. Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. Washington DC: National Academy Press. 2001. ISBN 0-309-07574-2. (原始内容存档于2001-06-28).
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- ^ Gray, Louise. Royal Society to publish guide on climate change to counter claims of 'exaggeration'. The Daily Telegraph (London). 2010-05-29. (原始内容存档于May 31, 2010).
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- ^ Harrabin, Roger. Society to review climate message. BBC News. 2010-05-27 [2010-06-09]. (原始内容存档于2010-07-08).
- ^ Gardner, Dan. Some excitable climate-change deniers just don't understand what science is. Montreal Gazette. 2010-06-08 [2010-06-09]. (原始内容存档于2010-06-11).
- ^ Joint statement by the Network of African Science Academies (NASAC) to the G8 on sustainability, energy efficiency and climate change. 2007 [2015-05-22]. (原始内容存档于2017-06-09).
A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change ... Although we recognize that this nexus poses daunting challenges for the developed world, we firmly believe that these challenges are even more daunting for the most impoverished, science-poor regions of the developing world, especially in Africa.
- ^ European Academy of Sciences and Arts Let's Be Honest (PDF). [2015-07-29]. (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-03-04).
- ^ European Science Foundation Position Paper Impacts of Climate Change on the European Marine and Coastal Environment — Ecosystems Approach: 7–10, 2007 [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档于2009-07-30) "There is now convincing evidence that since the industrial revolution, human activities, resulting in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases have become a major agent of climate change. These greenhouse gases affect the global climate by retaining heat in the troposphere, thus raising the average temperature of the planet and altering global atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. While on-going national and international actions to curtail and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are essential, the levels of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere, and their impact, are likely to persist for several decades. On-going and increased efforts to mitigate climate change through reduction in greenhouse gases are therefore crucial."
- ^ Revkin, Andrew C. Panel Urges Global Shift on Sources of Energy. The New York Times. 2007-10-23 [2023-11-13]. (原始内容存档于2023-04-08) –通过NYTimes.com.
- ^ InterAcademy Council. InterAcademy Council. [2012-07-30]. (原始内容存档于2017-04-18).
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- ^ InterAcademy Council. InterAcademy Council. [2012-07-30]. (原始内容存档于2016-06-03).
- ^ CAETS Statement on Environment and Sustainable Growth. [2008-04-18]. (原始内容存档于2008-12-10).
- ^ American Chemical Society Global Climate Change, [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档于2012-02-24) "Careful and comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth's climate system is changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol particles (IPCC, 2007). There is very little room for doubt that observed climate trends are due to human activities. The threats are serious and action is urgently needed to mitigate the risks of climate change. The reality of global warming, its current serious and potentially disastrous impacts on Earth system properties, and the key role emissions from human activities play in driving these phenomena have been recognized by earlier versions of this ACS policy statement (ACS, 2004), by other major scientific societies, including the American Geophysical Union (AGU, 2003), the American Meteorological Society (AMS, 2007) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS, 2007), and by the U. S. National Academies and ten other leading national academies of science (NA, 2005)."
- ^ American Institute of Physics Statement supporting AGU statement on human-induced climate change, 2003 [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档于2021-01-25) "The Governing Board of the American Institute of Physics has endorsed a position statement on climate change adopted by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Council in December 2003."
- ^ American Physical Society Climate Change Policy Statement, November 2007 [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档于2023-09-04) "Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth's climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes. The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth's physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now. Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to understand the effects of human activity on the Earth's climate, and to provide the technological options for meeting the climate challenge in the near and longer terms. The APS also urges governments, universities, national laboratories and its membership to support policies and actions that will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.
- ^ AIP science policy document. (PDF), 2005 [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-03-03) "Policy: The AIP supports a reduction of the green house gas emissions that are leading to increased global temperatures, and encourages research that works towards this goal. Reason: Research in Australia and overseas shows that an increase in global temperature will adversely affect the Earth's climate patterns. The melting of the polar ice caps, combined with thermal expansion, will lead to rises in sea levels that may impact adversely on our coastal cities. The impact of these changes on biodiversity will fundamentally change the ecology of Earth."
- ^ EPS Position Paper Energy for the future: The Nuclear Option (PDF), 2007 [2023-11-13], (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-04-17) "The emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, among which carbon dioxide is the main contributor, has amplified the natural greenhouse effect and led to global warming. The main contribution stems from burning fossil fuels. A further increase will have decisive effects on life on earth. An energy cycle with the lowest possible CO2 emission is called for wherever possible to combat climate change."
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There is no known geologic precedent for large increases of atmospheric CO2 without simultaneous changes in other components of the carbon cycle and climate system. ... Changes in the climate system that are confidently predicted in response to increases in greenhouse gases include increases in mean surface air temperature, increases in global mean rates of precipitation and evaporation, rising sea level, and changes in the biosphere.
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- ^ IUGG Resolution 6 (PDF). [2015-07-29]. (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2022-08-03).
- ^ NAGT. NAGT. [2015-07-29]. (原始内容存档于2023-09-21).
- ^ Position Statement - Teaching Climate Change. NAGT. [2019-11-28]. (原始内容存档于2023-06-08).
- ^ AMS Information Statement on Climate Change. Ametsoc.org. 2012-08-20 [2012-08-27]. (原始内容存档于2018-04-11).
- ^ Maibach, Edward. A 2016 National Survey of American Meteorological Society Member Views on Climate Change: Initial Findings. George Mason University. March 2016: 25 [2023-11-13]. (原始内容存档于2023-10-18).
- ^ Statement. AMOS. [30 July 2012]. (原始内容存档于2015-11-04).
- ^ CFCAS Letter to PM, 2005-11-25 (PDF). [2015-07-29]. (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2010-08-21).
- ^ Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Letter to Stephen Harper (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆) (Updated, 2007)
- ^ News - Royal Meteorological Society. www.rmets.org. [2015-07-29]. (原始内容存档于2018-07-31).
- ^ WMO's Statement at the Twelfth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. (PDF).
- ^ Council of the American Quaternary Association. Petroleum Geologists' Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate. Eos. 2006, 87 (36): 364. Bibcode:2006EOSTr..87..364B. doi:10.1029/2006EO360008 .
- ^ 109.0 109.1 INQUA Statement On Climate Change. (PDF). [2023-11-13]. (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-05-03).
- ^ AAWV Position Statement on Climate Change, Wildlife Diseases, and Wildlife Health "There is widespread scientific agreement that the world's climate is changing and that the weight of evidence demonstrates that anthropogenic factors have and will continue to contribute significantly to global warming and climate change. It is anticipated that continuing changes to the climate will have serious negative impacts on public, animal and ecosystem health due to extreme weather events, changing disease transmission dynamics, emerging and re-emerging diseases, and alterations to habitat and ecological systems that are essential to wildlife conservation. Furthermore, there is increasing recognition of the inter-relationships of human, domestic animal, wildlife, and ecosystem health as illustrated by the fact the majority of recent emerging diseases have a wildlife origin."
- ^ AIBS Position Statements, [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档于2020-10-26) "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver."
- ^ Scientific societies warn Senate: climate change is real, Ars Technica, 2009-10-22 [2023-11-13], (原始内容存档于2011-11-12)
- ^ Letter to US Senators (PDF), October 2009 [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-02-15)
- ^ Global Environmental Change — Microbial Contributions, Microbial Solutions (PDF), American Society For Microbiology, May 2006 [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-04-15) They recommended "reducing net anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere" and "minimizing anthropogenic disturbances of" atmospheric gases. Carbon dioxide concentrations were relatively stable for the past 10,000 years but then began to increase rapidly about 150 years ago...as a result of fossil fuel consumption and land use change. Of course, changes in atmospheric composition are but one component of global change, which also includes disturbances in the physical and chemical conditions of the oceans and land surface. Although global change has been a natural process throughout Earth's history, humans are responsible for substantially accelerating present-day changes. These changes may adversely affect human health and the biosphere on which we depend. Outbreaks of a number of diseases, including Lyme disease, hantavirus infections, dengue fever, bubonic plague, and cholera, have been linked to climate change."
- ^ Australian Coral Reef Society official letter (PDF), 2006, (原始内容 (PDF)存档于22 March 2006) Official communique regarding the Great Barrier Reef and the "world-wide decline in coral reefs through processes such as overfishing, runoff of nutrients from the land, coral bleaching, global climate change, ocean acidification, pollution", etc.: There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth's climate is changing as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases. The IPCC (involving over 3,000 of the world's experts) has come out with clear conclusions as to the reality of this phenomenon. One does not have to look further than the collective academy of scientists worldwide to see the string (of) statements on this worrying change to the earth's atmosphere. There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs are heavily affected by the activities of man and there are significant global influences that can make reefs more vulnerable such as global warming. ... It is highly likely that coral bleaching has been exacerbated by global warming."
- ^ Institute of Biology policy page 'Climate Change', [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档于2007-10-10) "there is scientific agreement that the rapid global warming that has occurred in recent years is mostly anthropogenic, ie due to human activity." As a consequence of global warming, they warn that a "rise in sea levels due to melting of ice caps is expected to occur. Rises in temperature will have complex and frequently localised effects on weather, but an overall increase in extreme weather conditions and changes in precipitation patterns are probable, resulting in flooding and drought. The spread of tropical diseases is also expected." Subsequently, the Institute of Biology advocates policies to reduce "greenhouse gas emissions, as we feel that the consequences of climate change are likely to be severe."
- ^ SAF Forest Management and Climate Change (PDF), 2008 [2009-01-29], (原始内容 (PDF)存档于2012-02-22) "Forests are shaped by climate. ... Changes in temperature and precipitation regimes therefore have the potential to dramatically affect forests nationwide. There is growing evidence that our climate is changing. The changes in temperature have been associated with increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and other GHGs in the atmosphere."
- ^ SAF Forest Offset Projects in a Carbon Trading System (PDF), 2008 [2009 -01-29], (原始内容 (PDF)存档于2012-02-22) "Forests play a significant role in offsetting CO2 emissions, the primary anthropogenic GHG."
- ^ Wildlife Society Global Climate Change and Wildlife (PDF), (原始内容 (PDF)存档于27 November 2008) "Scientists throughout the world have concluded that climate research conducted in the past two decades definitively shows that rapid worldwide climate change occurred in the 20th century, and will likely continue to occur for decades to come. Although climates have varied dramatically since the Earth was formed, few scientists question the role of humans in exacerbating recent climate change through the emission of greenhouse gases. The critical issue is no longer "if" climate change is occurring, but rather how to address its effects on wildlife and wildlife habitats." The statement goes on to assert that "evidence is accumulating that wildlife and wildlife habitats have been and will continue to be significantly affected by ongoing large-scale rapid climate change." The statement concludes with a call for "reduction in anthropogenic (human-caused) sources of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global climate change and the conservation of CO2- consuming photosynthesizers (i.e., plants)."
- ^ AAP Global Climate Change and Children's Health, 2007 [2009-02-13], (原始内容存档于22 July 2009) "There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. Anticipated direct health consequences of climate change include injury and death from extreme weather events and natural disasters, increases in climate-sensitive infectious diseases, increases in air pollution–related illness, and more heat-related, potentially fatal, illness. Within all of these categories, children have increased vulnerability compared with other groups."
- ^ ACPM Policy Statement Abrupt Climate Change and Public Health Implications, 2006 [21 November 2008], (原始内容存档于7 November 2007) "The American College of Preventive Medicine (ACPM) accept the position that global warming and climate change is occurring, that there is potential for abrupt climate change, and that human practices that increase greenhouse gases exacerbate the problem, and that the public health consequences may be severe."
- ^ American Medical Association Policy Statement, 2008 [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档于2023-10-17) "Support the findings of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which states that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that these changes will negatively affect public health. Support educating the medical community on the potential adverse public health effects of global climate change, including topics such as population displacement, flooding, infectious and vector-borne diseases, and healthy water supplies."
- ^ American Public Health Association Policy Statement Addressing the Urgent Threat of Global Climate Change to Public Health and the Environment, 2007, (原始内容存档于2009-12-31) "The long-term threat of global climate change to global health is extremely serious and the fourth IPCC report and other scientific literature demonstrate convincingly that anthropogenic GHG emissions are primarily responsible for this threat....US policy makers should immediately take necessary steps to reduce US emissions of GHGs, including carbon dioxide, to avert dangerous climate change."
- ^ AMA Climate Change and Human Health — 2004, 2004[永久失效链接] They recommend policies "to mitigate the possible consequential health effects of climate change through improved energy efficiency, clean energy production and other emission reduction steps."
- ^ AMA Climate Change and Human Health — 2004. Revised 2008., 2008, (原始内容存档于16 February 2009) "The world's climate – our life-support system – is being altered in ways that are likely to pose significant direct and indirect challenges to health. While 'climate change' can be due to natural forces or human activity, there is now substantial evidence to indicate that human activity – and specifically increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions – is a key factor in the pace and extent of global temperature increases. Health impacts of climate change include the direct impacts of extreme events such as storms, floods, heatwaves and fires and the indirect effects of longer-term changes, such as drought, changes to the food and water supply, resource conflicts and population shifts. Increases in average temperatures mean that alterations in the geographic range and seasonality of certain infections and diseases (including vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, Ross River virus and food-borne infections such as Salmonellosis) may be among the first detectable impacts of climate change on human health. Human health is ultimately dependent on the health of the planet and its ecosystem. The AMA believes that measures which mitigate climate change will also benefit public health. Reducing GHGs should therefore be seen as a public health priority."
- ^ World Federation of Public Health Associations resolution "Global Climate Change" (PDF), 2001, (原始内容 (PDF)存档于17 December 2008) "Noting the conclusions of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other climatologists that anthropogenic greenhouse gases, which contribute to global climate change, have substantially increased in atmospheric concentration beyond natural processes and have increased by 28 percent since the industrial revolution….Realizing that subsequent health effects from such perturbations in the climate system would likely include an increase in: heat-related mortality and morbidity; vector-borne infectious diseases,… water-borne diseases…(and) malnutrition from threatened agriculture….the World Federation of Public Health Associations…recommends precautionary primary preventive measures to avert climate change, including reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and preservation of greenhouse gas sinks through appropriate energy and land use policies, in view of the scale of potential health impacts".
- ^ WHO Protecting health from climate change (PDF): 2, 2008 [2009-04-18], (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2022-04-01)
- ^ Closer than ever: It is 100 seconds to midnight. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. [2020-01-29]. (原始内容存档于2019-01-24).
- ^ Statement supporting AGU statement on human-induced climate change, American Astronomical Society, 2004, (原始内容存档于2007-05-07) "In endorsing the "Human Impacts on Climate" statement [issued by the American Geophysical Union], the AAS recognizes the collective expertise of the AGU in scientific subfields central to assessing and understanding global change, and acknowledges the strength of agreement among our AGU colleagues that the global climate is changing and human activities are contributing to that change."
- ^ ASA Statement on Climate Change, 30 November 2007 [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档于2016-07-22) "The ASA endorses the IPCC conclusions.... Over the course of four assessment reports, a small number of statisticians have served as authors or reviewers. Although this involvement is encouraging, it does not represent the full range of statistical expertise available. ASA recommends that more statisticians should become part of the IPCC process. Such participation would be mutually beneficial to the assessment of climate change and its impacts and also to the statistical community."
- ^ Lapp, David. What Is Climate Change. Canadian Council of Professional Engineers. [2015-08-18]. (原始内容存档于2016-03-25).
- ^ Policy Statement, Climate Change and Energy, February 2007 [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档于2007-11-03) "Engineers Australia believes that Australia must act swiftly and proactively in line with global expectations to address climate change as an economic, social and environmental risk ... We believe that addressing the costs of atmospheric emissions will lead to increasing our competitive advantage by minimising risks and creating new economic opportunities. Engineers Australia believes the Australian Government should ratify the Kyoto Protocol."
- ^ IAGLR Fact Sheet The Great Lakes at a Crossroads: Preparing for a Changing Climate (PDF), February 2009 [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2023-03-20) "While the Earth's climate has changed many times during the planet's history because of natural factors, including volcanic eruptions and changes in the Earth's orbit, never before have we observed the present rapid rise in temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2). Human activities resulting from the industrial revolution have changed the chemical composition of the atmosphere. ... Deforestation is now the second largest contributor to global warming, after the burning of fossil fuels. These human activities have significantly increased the concentration of "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere. As the Earth's climate warms, we are seeing many changes: stronger, more destructive hurricanes; heavier rainfall; more disastrous flooding; more areas of the world experiencing severe drought; and more heat waves."
- ^ IPENZ Informatory Note, Climate Change and the greenhouse effect (PDF), October 2001 [2015-07-29], (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2012-03-06) "Human activities have increased the concentration of these atmospheric greenhouse gases, and although the changes are relatively small, the equilibrium maintained by the atmosphere is delicate, and so the effect of these changes is significant. The world's most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, a by-product of the burning of fossil fuels. Since the time of the Industrial Revolution about 200 years ago, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 280 parts per million to 370 parts per million, an increase of around 30%. On the basis of available data, climate scientists are now projecting an average global temperature rise over this century of 2.0 to 4.5°C. This compared with 0.6°C over the previous century – about a 500% increase ... This could lead to changing, and for all emissions scenarios more unpredictable, weather patterns around the world, less frost days, more extreme events (droughts and storm or flood disasters), and warmer sea temperatures and melting glaciers causing sea levels to rise. ... Professional engineers commonly deal with risk, and frequently have to make judgments based on incomplete data. The available evidence suggests very strongly that human activities have already begun to make significant changes to the earth's climate, and that the long-term risk of delaying action is greater than the cost of avoiding/minimising the risk."
- ^ AAPG Position Statement: Climate Change (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆) from dpa.aapg.org
- ^ Climate :03:2007 EXPLORER. Aapg.org. [2012-07-30]. (原始内容存档于2013-05-28).
- ^ Sunsetting the Global Climate Change Committee (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆), The Professional Geologist, March/April 2010, p. 28
- ^ AIPG Position Statements. [1 February 2018]. (原始内容存档于2 February 2018).
- ^ The Professional Geologist publications. [2012-07-30]. (原始内容存档于2012-03-05).
- ^ Naomi Oreskes. Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change (PDF). Science. 3 December 2004, 306 (5702): 1686 [2015-07-29]. PMID 15576594. S2CID 153792099. doi:10.1126/science.1103618 . (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2009-12-15). (see also for an exchange of letters to Science (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆))
- ^ Lavelle, Marianne. Survey Tracks Scientists' Growing Climate Concern. U.S. News & World Report. 23 April 2008 [2010-01-20]. (原始内容存档于2010-05-12).
- ^ Lichter, S. Robert. Climate Scientists Agree on Warming, Disagree on Dangers, and Don't Trust the Media's Coverage of Climate Change. Statistical Assessment Service, George Mason University. 2008-04-24 [2010-01-20]. (原始内容存档于2010-01-11).
- ^ "Structure of Scientific Opinion on Climate Change" at Journalist's Resource.org. [2015-07-29]. (原始内容存档于2020-11-11).
- ^ Stephen J. Farnsworth; S. Robert Lichter. The Structure of Scientific Opinion on Climate Change. International Journal of Public Opinion Research. 2011-10-27 [2011-12-02]. (原始内容存档于11 March 2013).
- ^ Bray, Dennis; von Storch, Hans. A Survey of the Perspectives of Climate Scientists Concerning Climate Science and Climate Change (PDF). 2009 [2010-02-07]. (原始内容 (PDF)存档于2012-12-06).
- ^ Bray, D.; von Storch H. Prediction' or 'Projection; The nomenclature of climate science (PDF). Science Communication. 2009, 30 (4): 534–543 [2023-11-13]. S2CID 145338218. doi:10.1177/1075547009333698. (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2021-03-01).
- ^ Doran, Peter T.; Zimmerman, Maggie Kendall. Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change. Eos. 20 January 2009, 90 (3): 22–23 [2023-11-13]. Bibcode:2009EOSTr..90...22D. ISSN 2324-9250. S2CID 128398335. doi:10.1029/2009EO030002. (原始内容存档于2021-07-09) (英语).
- ^ Anderegg, William R L; Prall, James W.; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H. Expert credibility in climate change (PDF). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2010, 107 (27): 12107–12109 [2015-07-29]. Bibcode:2010PNAS..10712107A. PMC 2901439 . PMID 20566872. doi:10.1073/pnas.1003187107 . (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2018-10-22).
- ^ Cook, John; Nuccitelli, Dana; Green, Sarah A.; Richardson, Mark; Winkler, Bärbel; Painting, Rob; Way, Robert; Skuce, Andrew. Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature. Environmental Research Letters. 2013-01-01, 8 (2): 024024. Bibcode:2013ERL.....8b4024C. ISSN 1748-9326. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024 (英语).
- ^ Tol, Richard S J. Comment on 'Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature'. Environmental Research Letters (IOP Publishing). 2016-04-01, 11 (4): 048001. Bibcode:2016ERL....11d8001T. ISSN 1748-9326. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048001 .
- ^ Cook, John; Oreskes, Naomi; Doran, Peter T.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Verheggen, Bart; Maibach, Ed W.; Carlton, J. Stuart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Skuce, Andrew G.; Green, Sarah A.; Nuccitelli, Dana. Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming. Environmental Research Letters. April 2016, 11 (4): 048002. Bibcode:2016ERL....11d8002C. ISSN 1748-9326. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 (英语).
- ^ Plait, P. Why Climate Change Denial Is Just Hot Air. Slate. 2012-12-11 [2014-02-14]. (原始内容存档于2018-09-15).
- ^ Plait, P. The Very, Very Thin Wedge of Denial. Slate. 2014-01-14 [2014-02-14]. (原始内容存档于2018-09-06).
- ^ Powell, James Lawrence. Climate Scientists Virtually Unanimous Anthropogenic Global Warming Is True. Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 2015-10-01, 35 (5–6): 121–124. ISSN 0270-4676. doi:10.1177/0270467616634958 (英语).
- ^ Powell, James Lawrence. The Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming Matters. Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 2017-05-24, 36 (3): 157–163. S2CID 148618842. doi:10.1177/0270467617707079 (英语).
- ^ Ramanujan, Krishna. More than 99.9% of studies agree: Humans caused climate change. Cornell Chronicle. Environmental Research Letters. [2021-10-20]. (原始内容存档于2023-11-28).
- ^ Public perceptions on climate change (PDF). PERITIA Trust EU - The Policy Institute of Kings College London: 4. June 2022. (原始内容存档 (PDF)于2022-07-15).
- ^ Powell, James. Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming. Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 2019-11-20, 37 (4): 183–184. S2CID 213454806. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266.
- ^ Lynas, Mark; Houlton, Benjamin Z.; Perry, Simon. Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. Environmental Research Letters. 2021-10-19, 16 (11): 114005. Bibcode:2021ERL....16k4005L. S2CID 239032360. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966 .
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- ^ US NRC. Understanding and Responding to Climate Change. A brochure prepared by the US National Research Council (US NRC) (PDF). Washington DC, US: US National Academy of Sciences. 2008 [2013-06-27]. (原始内容 (PDF)存档于2017-10-11).
- ^ Joint Science Academies' Statement (PDF). [2006-08-30]. (原始内容 (PDF)存档于2013-09-09).
- ^ Climate Change Research: Issues for the Atmospheric and Related Sciences Adopted by the AMS Council 9 February 2003. Ametsoc.org. 9 February 2003 [30 July 2012]. (原始内容存档于2015-05-02).
- ^ Australian Coral Reef Society. Australian Coral Reef Society. [2012-07-30]. (原始内容存档于2023-07-03).
- ^ Australian Coral Reef Society official letter 互联网档案馆的存档,存档日期2006-03-22., 2006-06-16
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- IPCC AR4 WG2, Parry, M. L.; Canziani, O. F.; Palutikof, J. P.; van der Linden, P. J.; Hanson, C. E. , 编, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2007 [2013-05-21], ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7, (原始内容存档于2018-11-10) (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4).
- IPCC AR4 WG3, Metz, B.; Davidson, O. R.; Bosch, P. R.; Dave, R.; Meyer, L. A. , 编, Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2007 [2013-05-21], ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4, (原始内容存档于2014-10-12) (pb: 978-0-521-70598-1).
- IPCC AR4 SYR, Core Writing Team; Pachauri, R. K.; Reisinger, A. , 编, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (SYR), Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, 2007 [2015-07-29], ISBN 978-92-9169-122-7, (原始内容存档于2018-11-03).
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外部链接
编辑- Cook, John; van der Linden, Sander; Maibach, Edward; Lewandowsky, Stephan. The Consensus Handbook / Why the scientific consensus on climate change is important (PDF). March 2018. (原始内容存档 (PDF)于17 August 2021).